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© 2009-2012 ФГОУ ВППО ВГИК им. С.А. Герасимова

Think about tomorrow. Alexander Rogers

I am not going to persuade maydanuvshihsya and finished Russophobia. This text is not for them, and for thinking and understanding that everything in Ukraine is really very bad.

So the first few numbers. National debt of Ukraine on April 1, 2015 (the beginning of May data yet) is officially $ 65 billion, of which external debt of $ 42.6 billion and domestic debt of $ 22.4 billion.
Foreign exchange reserves (GCR) on May 1, 2015 officially up $ 9.6 billion (actually less, but let it be). In June, the government should pay the IMF about $ 5 billion of current liabilities. Recall that the IMF its part of the debt write off or restructure flatly refuses. May gold reserves inevitably decline. As a result, in June the remainder of foreign exchange reserves in Ukraine will be about $ 4 billion (plus or minus the statistical error).
Domestic debt for optimism, we will not consider, for example, that it can restructure. It remains $ 42 billion of external public debt, the repayment of which there is a $ 4 billion. That is Ukraine can pay off only about 10% of its external public debt.
For comparison, the external public debt of the Russian Federation of May 1, was $ 52.5 billion, and gold reserves of Russia amount to $ 356 billion, of which monetary gold valued at $ 48.3 billion. That is, Russia can repay all its foreign debt is almost seven times (more precisely, it is 6.8 times).
At the same time, in contrast to Ukraine, the trade balance of the Russian Federation consistently reduced with a significant surplus, which provides a permanent inflow of foreign currency (even in spite of sanctions and other nasty US and its allies).
That is, you can arbitrarily say that the financial affairs of Ukraine is about 68 times worse than Russia.
At the same time hryvnia money supply exceeds 930 billion. That is, if the gold reserves will be $ 4 billion, the credit default ratio between M2 and gold reserves would be 230 to 1 (that is, roughly the dollar will be in the event of default). And even if you do not pay 5 billion of the IMF and to default before the course is still around 930/9 or 103 to 1.
To avoid a default and the collapse of hryvnia Ukraine should be somewhere to take $ 40 billion for the current hryvnia mass, as well as more about the same as for the repayment of debt. And that we do not yet take into account the banking, corporate and municipal defaults, as well as the huge budget deficit.
For example, the actual bankrupts are Pension Fund of Ukraine (PFC), “Ukrainian Railways”, the city of Kiev, “Oschadbank” “Ukreximbank” and so on.
In order not to bore you with tedious calculations, summarize that for the stabilization of the whole economy, not just the public sector, should be the order of $ 180-200 billion. This is just to keep the economy afloat, approximately at the current level. On the development in such hands, however.
What to do? There are three options.

25 May 2015

««« Tomsk ONF activists dealt with the question of the education of children with speech disorders in mainstream schools The Russian Orthodox Church called the exam nasty people »»»

Expert: Kudrin important than Putin and Medvedev »»»
The experience of the interaction of the President and the Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has shown that Russia really does not direct the so-called tandem.
Conducting UPE (External independent testing, analog USE Ukraine) in jeopardy because of underfunding »»»
For the full and timely conduct independent testing must 9,480,000 hryvnia.
The Ukrainian government wants to reduce the number of universities in 2.5 times »»»
The Ukrainian government expects to save about $ 12 million in the current year due to the reform of education.
In Ukraine, about 500 high schools closed »»»
Ukrainian authorities continue reforms in education to obtain a loan from the IMF Elimination of universities in Ukraine plan to start after the completion of the school year.
Runs a training program of Russian students in foreign universities, including at public expense. »»»
Agency Strategic Initiatives (ASI) in collaboration with the Club intends